Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Is the fiscal situation in Greece a global threat?

In reality the fiscal situation in Greece is not a global economic threat. Greece is only going through a debt crisis.

To evaluate the matter, it is important to differentiate between the stock of debt and the flow of new debt.

We should not be complacent about the stock of debt: it is high and probably unsustainable at 180% of GDP. Even with higher growth of economy this level of debt would be a challenge. Greece's growth is very low, demographics are unsupportive, productivity is very week. However, we should not forget that Greek debt has already been significantly restructured in such a way that it is manageable in the short-term. Altogether, current high level of Greek debt is a threat to Greece. It will probably impact its creditors as well.

On the other hand, Greek debt flows fundamentals have exceptionally improved, and have been strong. What Greeks did is almost unprecedented. Within five years, they turned their government primary balance to a surplus. Similarly, their current account, over the same period, went from a deficit of 115 to a surplus of over 1%.

So, we have a country that runs a primary budget surplus and a current account surplus, but where, partly because of austerity, there is no growth possible. Hence, the stock of debt crisis only. It can add to market volatility. If poorly handled by Eurozone powers, it can result in Euro weakness. This will hardly result in global economic threat.

Monday, February 9, 2015

Asset allocation of endowments

Endowments and sovereign wealth funds are expected to invest with the longest time horizon and view.

The chart sums up latest disclosures of investment holdings by endowments and Corporate Pension Funds.

The first observable fact: low level of lack of fixed income in endowment portfolios, 9.00%.

Second, 53.7% of endowment holdings are in "alternative" classes: hedge funds, private equity, and real estate.

Equities are only 27.00% of endowment portfolios.

Alternatives investments, offering lower liquidity and lower volatility, are not so "alternative" for endowments, who are assuming that returns will be better from hedge funds, private equity, and real estate.

As a result, almost 99% of endowments expect better than 7% annualized returns over the long run, while only 66% of pension funds expect the same.

Source: Market Insights. 1Q 2015. JP Morgan Asset Management.

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

The Magic in selling a business interest.


Recently the partners of Redmount Capital were at a luncheon with Earvin Magic Johnson delivering a keynote speech.

We were hoping for some insight from Magic, in our mind the most successful pro-athlete entrepreneur, turning his athletic power into business empire. He built best-in-kind connections to propel his business juggernaut. His business visions are not only contrary to the consensus but also ahead of times.

Right away we were made aware that Magic is a genuinely fun person. He is charming yet highly opinionated.  We knew he was competitive but as he spoke we also learned how fond he is of a good competition. It seems he is not only in it to win it but also to get better. All along he was affectionate to the listeners, truly appreciating their interest and presence.

"So should I sell Lakers?"

As he spoke we kept looking for details in his entrepreneurial ways. He let us as he brought up the
sale of his ownership in LA Lakers. Magic acquired interest in to the team in 1994. In 2010 the news
of his LA Lakers sale took many by surprise, Most people thought that he was making a mistake and that he will come to regret it. 

At the luncheon Magic explained why he decided on the sale. LA Lakers were doing as good as they have ever done...or could have ever done. Kobe was getting older. Magic had another plan in the works. He was just looking for the right offer. 

What was his plan? His purchase, in partnership with Guggenheim, of LA Dodgers.

Magic knew Dodgers presented a similar opportunity as Lakers in 1994, only larger. He realized that he needed capital. which he could obtain, if he sold something. He also knew that he needed his focused attention on Dodgers.

Several well-known billionaire investors were ready to partner with him in the Dodgers deal. Choosing the right one seemed easy but he wanted himself to be a large investor in the deal. He wanted to call the shots and make good money.

Prior to that, several offers were received by Magic to consider selling Lakers, but he was looking for the "right offer". He did not elaborate what he thought the "right offer" was. We suspect he knew what it would look like - at a right price and timed to let him get the Dodgers' deal done.

"So should I sell Lakers?" Magic asked us all in the room, extending the microphone towards us. "You guys are smart enough, you have clients like me". "Yes", spoke the group. Magic nodded in satisfaction, with his smile getting brighter.



In 2010 Earvin Magic Johnson effectively exchanged his ownership in LA Lakers for the one in LA Dodgers. A classic replacement of a business interest in a stage of diminishing returns for a one with remaining opportunities. Another plus, the business was bigger with higher RIE (Return on Invested Effort). 

This may just be the Magic approach to selling a business interest.

Photo by Curtis E. Hollowell, Redmount Capital Partners.