Economic Snapshot

Housing: The median home price for Los Angeles County increased 7.4% in June to $569,000, setting a record high. Orange County increased 6.1% in June to $695,000, compared from a year earlier.

Jobs: Data from the California Employment Development Department showed employers reduced their payrolls by 1,400 in June. Unemployment remained at 4.7%, the lowest since November 2000.

LEI: The San Diego Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego reached 144.4 in June, the highest in 17 years. There were 2,100 construction permits issued in June.

Q2 GDP Highlights: The first estimate of Q2 GDP showed GDP increased at a 2.6% annualized rate from the prior quarter. Q1 was revised to 1.2% from 1.4%.

Consumer Spending: Consumer spending increased 2.8% in Q2 according, to data from the Commerce Department.

Wages: The Commerce Department data showed wages and salaries increased 0.5% in Q2, down from a 0.8% increase in Q1.

Federal Reserve: After the last policy meeting the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged. The Fed still anticipates “gradual” rate hikes however economists are predicting there will be no further rate increases in 2017, unless inflation increases.

Bank Confidence: A Gallup survey found 26% of Americans have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in banks. American confidence in banks was 21% in 2012 and 41% in June 2007.

Debt: Data analyzed from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data Charts showed student loan debt increased 828.3% since 1999. Auto debt increased 137.2% and credit card debt increased 23.6%.

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"Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconimc Data Charts showed student loan debt increased 828.3% since 1999." 

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Can Maturing CMBS Loans Wipe Out Your Equity and Wealth?

The large volume of maturing CMBS loans combined with new regulatory hurdles and widening spreads will have big impacts on the market in the coming year.

The wave of CMBS maturing loans that were created at the height of the real estate bubble will crest in 2016 and 2017. According to estimates by Trepp, nearly 20% of these maturing commercial mortgages will demand additional capital from current borrowers or new buyers when the loan is refinanced or the property is sold.

How Does the CMBS Market Work?

New risk retention rules coming into play in 2016 require that either the originating lender will have to hold a certain piece of the loan for at least 5 years and/or the B-piece buyer will have to hold the paper for that amount of time. As B-piece buyers aren't set up to comply with these regulations, they will be forced to create processes to handle, which will result in increased cost passed on to the borrower in the form of higher spreads.

Meanwhile, CMBS spreads are drifting wider with a recent 10-year AAA bond clearing at 140 basis points over swaps. This ongoing weakness has led some issuers scheduled to price this year to push off their deals until later in 2016.

CMBS Swap Spreads

What are the possible solutions for you?

Non-Bank Balance Sheet Lenders

Since 2008 a sizable contingent of non-bank balance sheet lenders have sprung up and they unencumbered by banking regulations, legal lending limits, or geographical footprint. They keep all loans in-house and rarely outsource underwriting or servicing to third parties. Permanent loans offered by non-bank lenders provide long-term financing for stabilized commercial real estate, with loan terms up to 20 years and without the hurdles of defeasance. Bridge loans by same lender are designed for un-stabilized properties or shorter term business plans and include leading-edge features such as additional future facilities for lease-up costs and loan terms up to 7 years. Most non-bank lenders make non-recourse loans 

Non-Real Estate Collateralized Lenders

Perhaps one of the oldest lending communities, non-real estate collateralized lenders offer flexible loans secured by a myriad of assets, including securities, business and real estate equity, etc. The closing processes are simplified and with lower costs. Financing may be used in combination with real estate backed loans.

To prepare for the coming wave please contact Redmount Capital Partners or learn more about our capabilities.

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Monthly Economic Commentary

Economic and market highlights

Economics

The US Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged in October but adopted a more hawkish tone in its press release, removing references to global financial and economic risks. The implication being that the chances of a December rate rise have increased. The target band remains 0 to 25 basis points. We forecast that the first Federal Reserve interest rate rise for the new tightening cycle will occur in December 2015, which is in line with market consensus.

The Chinese Caixin Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) shows manufacturing activity continues to slow, although the reading was fractionally stronger than anticipated at 48.3, up from 47.2 the previous month. In the eurozone, PMI readings have been relatively robust for most of the year, with October’s registering at 52.3 while after some strong data in the US over the past year, things are looking a little more subdued with the PMI at 50.1 with purchasing managers surveyed citing the strong dollar and energy markets as headwinds.

Source: MWM Research, Caixin, ISM, Markit, November 2015

Deflation in Europe remains a concern with Germany's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) registering a 0.2% fall year-on-year, while import prices fell 3.1%. The Euro area HICP is -0.1% year-on-year with core inflation running at 0.9%.

The latest real GDP figures from China show a 6.9% growth year-on-year, with the announcement after the 5th Plenum reiterating the goal to double China's GDP between 2010 and 2020, implying an average growth rate of 6.5% per year over the next five years.

Canada entered a technical recession in the first half of the year but is expected to return to growth in the third quarter. Australia was sailing close to the wind with a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth rate in the June quarter, although we expect a rebound for the third and fourth quarters of 2015 with a pickup in manufacturing output and strong retail trade.

Bonds

The downward trajectory of US 10-year note yields over the last few months looks to be reversing with the latest statements from the Federal Reserve conspicuously removing warnings about global financial and economic risks. Fixed income markets are pricing in a greater chance of a December rate hike after what was perceived to be relatively more hawkish statements. Yields in the United Kingdom, also close to a new rate hike cycle, followed suit. In Europe, while 10-year rates moved, there was very little response at the short end, which remain relatively stable near or below zero due to quantitative easing.

Equities

Equities were broadly stronger in October as they began to shrug off the volatility of August and September. In local currency terms, the strongest developed markets were Germany and Japan, up 11.8 and 10.9% respectively. The US gained 8.1% while Australia lagged, adding only 4.2%. Emerging market equities underperformed developed markets with China rallying 9.1% while the MSCI Emerging Market Index recovered 5.3 percent, dragged down by Brazil, India and Russia.

The S&P500 has staged a dramatic recovery, rallying 11.6% from its September lows and now rests just 1.4% away from new highs.

Currencies

The Canadian dollar and Swiss franc gained 2.4% while the British pound was up a fraction less at 2.0%. The Australian dollar has strengthened 1.6% over the course of October. The Quantitative Easing currencies euro and yen lost 1.0 and 0.8% respectively.

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2Q 2015 Private Equity Environment

Market Overview
Global equity markets were rattled late in the second quarter with the prospect of a Greek debt default

and exit from Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). On the second-to-last trading day of the quarter, following Greece’s decision to hold a referendum on the terms of a new debt bailout deal, the MSCI Europe index declined by 2.7%—its largest daily decline since October 2014. In the United States, the S&P 500 declined by more than 2%, which erased the index’s gains for the year. Asian
equity markets also sold off on the news, although most of the region’s equity indices finished the quarter with gains. Fixed income markets performed poorly overall in the second quarter. In particular, despite the commencement of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing program that drove much of the eurozone’s sovereign debt market into negative yield territory early in the quarter, euro-area government bonds experienced their largest-ever

quarterly loss, driven by concerns that yields had fallen too low in light of an improving economic outlook for the region.

Highlights

• M&A exit transaction value for PE-backed companies totaled $174 billion in 1H15—a decline of 34.8% from the record-setting 1H14 total but still one of the largest first-half totals ever recorded.
• High-yield default rates remain below historical averages in both the U.S. and Europe. However, sales of nonperforming loans reached a record high of €91 billion in 2014 and are expected to increase further in 2015.
  
• PE firms worldwide raised $92.1 billion in 2Q15, a 9% increase over the prior quarter and a 17% increase over the year-ago quarter. The increase was driven by buyout- and U.S.-focused fundraising activity.

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Clicking the Like button on various social media platforms, such as LinkedIn, Facebook, etc. does not constitute a testimonial for or endorsement of Redmount Capital Partners LLC or any Investment Advisor Representative. “Like” is not meant in the traditional sense. Posts must refrain from recommending investment advisory services or providing testimonials for our firm, since they are strictly prohibited. Please understand that we are required to delete such posts, since this is a regulatory requirement.

Are property valuations chasing future rent increases?

First, let pictures (charts in this case) speak their 1,000 words. 

Commercial property market valuations, in almost all categories, have eclipsed 2006-2007 picks. 

Valuations are even higher in key markets like Tri-State, Boston, Washington DC, Southern California and San Francisco.

" Capitalization rates have dropped to historical lows of 3% to 4% for industrial and multifamily deals in particular." Orange County Business Journal wrote on March 16, 2015.

Yet the largest and most sophisticated investors, led by pension funds, private equity funds, and insurance companies, are in the midst of buying spree.

The rational on the part of buyers? Potential rent increases in the near future. It seems the largest aggregators of capital believe in the continuing economic growth.