RATE-OF-CHANGE TICKS UP,
CONFIRMING MARCH 2015 LOW
The US Leading Indicator for June
is up 5.5% from one year ago, with the 1/12 rate-of-change holding steady from
its upward revised May value. Several successive months of strengthening
building permits and a steepening yield curve have pushed the Index higher. The
March 1/12 low confirms our expectation for a cyclical low for US Industrial
Production in early 2016.
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